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Coronavirus outbreak: Pakistan oil sales likely to fall by 33% YoY and 5% MoM in March

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Oil sales

KARACHI: Due to Covid-19 outbreak, Oil sales in March 2020 are expected to decline by 33 per cent YoY (and 5% MoM) largely driven by declines in High Speed Diesel (HSD) and Furnace Oil (FO) volumes of 31 per cent YoY and 62 per cent YoY, respectively.

According to Topline Securities report, the oil consumption in the last 15 days of the month is down by an average 40 per cent to 26,000 tons/day compared to average consumption of 46,000 tons/day, which is due to the lockdowns announced by the provinces to control the outbreak of Covid-19.

Ex-FO performance did not fare well either as 29 per cent YoY decline is likely. The slight uptick in FO volumes witnessed in Jan-2020 has quickly disappeared with declines of 33 per cent MoM and 51 per cent MoM in Feb-2020 and Mar-2020, respectively.

During nine-months 2020, overall volumes went down by 13 per cent YoY (ex FO 8%) due to overall economic slowdown and impact of Covid-19.

PSO sales are likely to decline the most by 46 per cent YoY. FO volumes are expected to decline by 88 per cent YoY, HSD volumes by 34 per cent YoY and MS volumes by 18 per cent YoY.

HASCOL volumes are likely to decline by 35 per cent YoY, but are expected to improve by 11 per cent MoM.

APL and SHEL volumes are expected to decline by 30 per cent YoY and 28 per cent YoY, respectively during the month.

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